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UPDATE 2/1: Severe Weather Likely MS Valley/TN Valley/Deep South on Tuesday-Tuesday Night




Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong) are likely across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley area mainly during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday.  Some of this activity will then progress East/Northeastward into portions of the Tennessee Valley and Deep South regions on Tuesday night and into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday.

In general, severe thunderstorm activity is likely anywhere within the yellow shaded area on the above image during the above referenced time period, with an “enhanced risk” of more widespread and possibly significant severe weather within n the brighter red shaded area on the same image.

The image below is a zoom-in of the same, with county lines added for emphasis within the “enhanced risk” area:

Population At Risk:

In total, the population within the enhanced risk area is 9.5 million (approximately 3.6 million households) and the total population at risk of experiencing some type of severe weather is approximately 39.1 million (approximately 14.8 million households).

The most significant risk of severe weather includes some larger cities such as:

-Jackson, MS
-Memphis, TN
-Nashville, TN
-Huntsville, AL
-Paducah, KY
-Evansville, IN
-Louisville, KY


Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the early to mid-afternoon hours on Tuesday very near the Western edge of the severe weather outlook areas noted on the images above.  The activity will then move and/or develop toward the East/Northeast across the remainder of the outlook area during the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, and will progress further Eastward into Tuesday night.

The potential exists for thunderstorms to produce fairly widespread and locally significant wind damage, especially within the “enhanced” risk area, during the period Tuesday afternoon into mainly early Tuesday night.  The potential also exists for a few scattered tornadoes across much of the same area during the same time period.  It is possible that one or more of these tornadoes could be strong in intensity and/or have a longer than normal path length.  This is especially a concern across the “enhanced” risk area noted on the images above.

Some instances of large hail are also possible, especially in the Deep South portion of the outlook area, however wind damage and the isolated to scattered tornado threat are expected to be the primary modes of severe weather with this event.

We will continue to monitor this developing situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.