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Tropical Weather Outlook for the Western Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico Regions

WeatherGuidance Tropical Weather Outlook —

Valid: Today through Wednesday (10/2/15-10/7/15)

Current Active Systems – Hurricane Joaquin:

• At 9am EDT, the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located about 350 miles East/Southeast of Miami, FL. Maximum sustained winds as of the 8am EDT observation were 160 mph and the minimum central pressure was 27.67 inches of mercury (937 millibars). The system is currently moving toward the Northwest at 3 mph.

Outlook and Expected Impacts:

• All available data continues to suggest that Joaquin will not pose a direct threat of landfall to the United States. The latest trends suggest that the center of Joaquin will track well to the East of the U.S. coast from today through Wednesday, as indicated in the image above.

• Even with the center of Joaquin expected to remain well to the East of the U.S. coastline, impacts will still be felt especially in the mid-Atlantic region this weekend into at least Monday. Very heavy rainfall will form as a result of the interaction with moisture from Joaquin and a slow moving cold front/upper level low pressure system. As the center of Joaquin passes off to the East of this region, strong Easterly (onshore) winds will develop and increase through the weekend. The combination of saturated grounds and persistent, strong and gusty winds will lead to an enhanced risk of trees and power lines being downed across some parts of this region. This will especially be the case in areas where the tree canopy has not been cleared from power lines in advance.

• Very heavy rainfall in excess of 6-10 inches continues to be forecast for much of the mid-Atlantic and southeast this weekend into at least Monday, with the heaviest rain in excess of 12 inches possible in portions of the Carolinas:

• Excessive rainfall as noted above will lead to an enhanced/significant risk of both flash flooding as well as flooding of rivers and streams across portions of this region, especially within the area outlined in red on the image below. Please note that historic and/or catastrophic flooding is possible in some parts of this area, especially in parts of the Carolinas (and South Carolina in particular) based on present trends:

As outlined in yesterday morning’s update, the Southerly track of Joaquin over the last 2 days has resulted in a shift in the future forecast track of the system. Our thinking from yesterday morning is still on track, and all indications continue to suggest that the center of Joaquin will remain well to the East of the U.S. coast throughout its lifetime.

Despite the fact that the center of Joaquin will remain well to the East of the U.S., significant impacts (both direct and in direct) are still likely especially for the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. Please note the impacts section above for those details.

Other than the impacts from Joaquin as noted above, no other tropical development is expected across the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico region through next Wednesday that could potentially impact the U.S.

We will continue to monitor this situation very closely and issue updates as conditions warrant.