Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley area mainly during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Some of this activity will progress East/Northeastward into portions of the Tennessee Valley and Deep South regions on Tuesday night. Severe thunderstorm activity is possible anywhere within the yellow shaded area on the above image during that time period, with an “enhanced risk” of severe weather indicated in the dark red portion of the same image.
The image below is a zoom-in of the same, with county lines added for emphasis of the “enhanced risk” area:
In total, the population within the enhanced risk area is 5.8 million (approximately 2.2 million households) and the total population at risk of experiencing some type of severe weather is approximately 17.7 million (approximately 6.7 million households).
The most significant risk of severe weather includes some larger cities such as:
Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop mainly during the early afternoon hours on Tuesday very near the Western edge of the severe weather outlook areas noted on the images above. The activity will then spread East/Northeast across the remainder of the outlook area during the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, and will progress further Eastward into Tuesday night.
The potential exists for thunderstorms to produce fairly widespread and locally significant wind damage, especially within the “enhanced” risk area, during the period Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The potential also exists for a few scattered tornadoes across much of the same area during the same time period, and a few of those tornadoes could be strong in intensity and may have a tendency to have longer than usual track lengths.
We will continue to monitor this developing situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.