Changes made with this update:
To the primary impacts graphic, we have added the primary area where blizzard conditions are expected, and we have further updated/refined the wintry mix/ice area based on the latest trends.
Present indications continue to suggest that a winter storm will impact a large portion of the Midwest and Great Lakes region beginning on Tuesday (West) and continuing into Wednesday (East).
Below is a summary of expected impacts within or near the following larger metropolitan areas:
-Twin Cities 1-3 inches of snow on average with much higher accumulations just to the Southeast-South of the area
-Chicago light ice and/or a wintry mix on Tuesday a.m. then light snow on Wednesday a.m.
-Detroit most likely to see a light wintry mix on Wednesday; higher impacts to immediate NW-N of city
-Kansas City light ice and/or a wintry mix changing to light snow
-Omaha blizzard conditions likely with snow accumulation of up to 12 inches possible
-Des Moines blizzard conditions likely with snow accumulation of up to 12 inches possible
-Heavy snowfall, especially within the “heavy snow” and “blizzard conditions” areas on the above image
-Blowing and drifting snow, especially within the “heavy snow” and “blizzard conditions” areas on the above image
-Blizzard conditions in the indicated area on the above image
-Scattered to regional areas of significant ice accumulation, especially from southeast Wisconsin into portions of Michigan
-Scattered to regional power outages especially within “ice” area noted on the above image
-Scattered downing of trees, tree limbs and power lines (possible in all areas, but especially in “ice” area)
-Scattered structural damage in the form of roof collapse, mainly in “heavy snow” and “blizzard” areas
-Scattered damage to shingled roofs, mainly in “heavy snow” and “blizzard” areas where winds will be highest
Total Snowfall Forecast:
Primary Areas of Uncertainty:
Twin Cities Area: We have continued to shift the forecast heaviest snowfall further to the South/Southeast of the metro area, with now 1-3 inches expected for the metro area on average. The gradient will be very tight, with much higher accumulation as you move immediately to the South and Southeast of the local area. Confidence is increasing in this scenario.
Chicago Area: It continues to appear that impacts to Chicago will be lower than areas to the immediate North of the city, mainly from near the Wisconsin border on Northward. A light wintry mix is likely in the Chicago area on Tuesday morning, and again on Tuesday night, before changing mainly to light snow on Wednesday morning. At this time, significant accumulations of ice, wintry mix and/or snow do not appear likely for the city itself. As mentioned yesterday, even a slight shift in track of the storm system could change this dramatically, so we will continue to monitor the situation closely.
Detroit Area: Detroit is in much the same position as Chicago at present, with the primary ice/wintry mix and/or snow impacts likely to remain just to the North of the city. A significant accumulation of ice and/or snow is possible in central and northern Michigan late Tuesday into Wednesday, but this is expected to remain just to the North-Northwest of the city of Detroit based on present trends. As mentioned yesterday, even a slight shift in track of the storm system could change this dramatically, so we will continue to monitor the situation closely.
Other Concerns from the Same Storm System:
The same storm system that will produce wintry weather in the Midwest and Great Lakes region will produce a potentially significant round of severe weather in portions of the Deep South and lower Mississippi Valley region at nearly the same time. Please refer to the separate alert bulletin concerning severe thunderstorm activity for additional details on that specific threat.