The Holborn team attended AIR’s 2016 Hurricane Season Preview webinar on June 9th. The following is a summary of the topics discussed in AIR’s 2016 Hurricane Season Preview
2015 Hurricane Season Recap
- Strong correlation between El Niño and 2015 hurricane season
- Low Atlantic activity:
- 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes
- Hurricane Joaquin – $120Mn in damages and 34 lives lost
- Eastern and Central Pacific experienced higher than normal activity:
- 26 named storms, 16 hurricanes
- Hurricane Patricia – EF-5 and the strongest hurricane ever recorded with $460Mn in damages and 0 deaths
Typical Season
Factors Influencing the 2016 Season
• Current El Nino state – possible development of La Niña with cooler water entering
• Atlantic Multi-decedal Oscillation – alternating warm and cold periods. Warm periods are often associated with a greater number of tropical cyclones
• Temperatures across the tropical Atlantic are forecasted to be average or above average this season with increased Atlantic basin activity
• Atlantic Meridional Mode – altering inter-topical convergence zone, which influences wind shear and Sea Surface Temperatures
Short Term Factors
• Saharan Air Layers – masses of dust, characterized by warm and dry air, which inhibit Tropical Cyclone development
• Madden Julian Oscillation – wave travels eastward around the globe for a period of 30-60 days and often causes 1-2 week period of increased tropical activity across ocean basins with the Atlantic active and Pacific inactive
2016 Seasonal Forecast
• Colorado State University predicts 14 named storms (above average), 6 hurricane (average), 2 major hurricanes (below average)
• NOAA predicts an average to above average season – La Nina is not definite and could change the outlook
• Early storms can and will form, already have – including 1 hurricane Alex (January) and 2 more named storms (Bonnie, Colin)
• Seasons with 2 named storms by June 30 average 6.1 hurricanes, at the end of the season
Landfall
• There has been a major U.S. Hurricane landfall drought
• Seasonal forecasts are unable to capture year-to-year volatility and resulting losses
If you have any questions, please reach out to the Holborn team for expert knowledge from our experienced cat modelers. For complete weather updates and news on impending storms throughout the 2016 hurricane season, check out Holborn’s Weather Center.
