At 10:00 am EDT this morning the center of Hurricane Matthew was located approximately 30 miles to the East/Southeast of Charleston, SC. Matthew was moving in a general Northeast to East/Northeasterly direction at near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph (mainly to the East of the center over water) . The minimum central pressure was 963 mb/28.44 inches of mercury.
The center of Hurricane Matthew will likely continue to move toward the Northeast or East/Northeast through tonight and then turn more toward the East to East/Southeast during the day on Sunday. With this projected track in mind, the highest winds associated with Matthew will likely continue to remain just barely offshore along and to the East of the center of the system today and Sunday.
Widespread tropical storm force winds are likely to continue along much of the coast of South Carolina today as well as well inland in central and eastern South Carolina. Such conditions are already spreading into far southwestern North Carolina at this time and will continue to spread East/Northeastward across primarily southeastern portions of the state by this afternoon and continuing into this evening:
Any hurricane force sustained winds are likely to be confined to the immediate coastline in South Carolina mainly during the morning/midday hours today. Most likely, any hurricane force winds even in this area would come in the form of gusts rather than sustained winds of that level. Most hurricane force sustained winds will remain immediately offshore in South Carolina this morning/midday, and even further offshore of North Carolina later today.
Storm surge flooding of 1-3 feet is likely as shown in light blue below, and some 3-6 foot levels possible as shown in yellow. Surge inundation flooding in excess of 6 feet is possible in the orange shaded areas on the same image, especially in recessed areas along the South Carolina coast during periods of high tide today.
Locally heavy rainfall in excess of 6 inches is likely across northeastern South Carolina into much of eastern North Carolina through Sunday. This will cause flash flooding and some river/small stream flooding in many parts of the region:
Isolated tornadoes are also possible in this same region as stronger thunderstorms rotate around Matthew through Sunday.
…Outlook Beyond This Weekend…
Matthew is forecast to turn back toward the South into early next week, meandering over the area generally to the East of Florida and to the North of the Bahamas through mid-week, likely as a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression by that time. There are no additional land impacts expected through Thursday at this time. Higher than normal surf and wave action can be expected again along the Eastern coast of Florida especially on Tuesday through Thursday as the system recurves.