Tropical Storm Maria is located northwest of Bermuda and, while it is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, it is not expected to make a U.S. landfall. There are no other organized systems today.

Water temperatures have begun to cool over the last two weeks, partly due to the passage of Hurricane Irene bringing deep waters to the surface along the Northeast Coast, but also partly due to the lengthening season. Eighty degree waters, that can sustain hurricane force winds, extend up the East Coast to the Virginia / North Carolina border. Storms tracking into the Northeast, while weakening, could remain dangerous.

The Bermuda high has generally been in an Eastern position throughout this season, allowing storms to track along the East Coast, and this has reduced exposure in the Gulf.

September 15 represents the mid-point of U.S. hurricane season frequency, so while the hazard will reduce as the season progresses, it remains significant.

Our next scheduled report will be on October 1, 2011.

Best Regards,

Paul Kneuer / Kathy Sandberg / Gloria LaGrua / Jon Christianson / Heather Talarico / Duane Hynes