There are no organized systems today and water temperatures along most of the U.S. coastline are now below 80 degrees, as seen in the map below. So, while the official season runs through November, a strong storm reaching U.S. exposures is now unlikely, and this is our last scheduled Tropical Weather Update for 2011.
|
2011 Atlantic Tropical Outlook
|
|
Actual
|
|
NOAA |
CSU |
WSI |
AVERAGE
SINCE 1995 |
|
Total to Date |
| Total Storms |
12 - 18 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
|
17 |
| Hurricanes |
6 - 10 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
6 |
| Major Hurricanes |
3 - 6 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
|
3 |
* Seasonal outlooks cannot predict if or where landfalls occur
As expected, the 2011 season has been an active one with three major storms (Category 3 and above), but only one hurricane strength storm in the U.S. (Irene's Cat 1 in landfalls in North Carolina and New Jersey). Details on the individual storms follow.
| Storm |
Dates |
Max Windspeed /
Category in MPH |
Min
Pressure |
Highest
Category |
U.S. Landfall
Category |
Landfall Locations at TS
or Hurricane strenght |
Deaths
(incl missing) |
| Tropical Storm Arlene |
6/29 - 7/1 |
65 |
994 |
TS |
|
Between Veracruz and Tampico, Mexico |
25 |
| Tropical Storm Bret |
7/17 - 7/22 |
65 |
996 |
TS |
|
|
0 |
| Tropical Storm Cindy |
7/20 - 7/22 |
70 |
994 |
TS |
|
|
0 |
| Tropical Storm Don |
7/27 - 7/30 |
50 |
998 |
TS |
Below TS |
|
0 |
| Tropical Storm Emily |
8/6 - 8/7 |
50 |
1003 |
TS |
|
Dominican Republic |
4 |
| Tropical Storm Franklin |
8/12 - 8/13 |
45 |
1004 |
TS |
|
|
0 |
| Tropical Storm Gert |
8/13 - 8/16 |
65 |
1000 |
TS |
|
|
0 |
| Tropical Storm Harvey |
8/19 - 8/22 |
60 |
994 |
TS |
|
Near Veracruz, Mexico |
3 |
| Hurricane Irene |
8/20 - 8/29 |
120 |
942 |
3 |
2 at 1
1 at TS |
Cape Lookout, NC (Cat 1); Little Egg
Inlet, NJ (Cat 1); Coney Island, NY (TS) |
56 |
| Tropical Storm Jose |
8/28 - 8/29 |
45 |
1007 |
TS |
|
|
0 |
| Hurricane Katia |
8/29 - 9/10 |
135 |
946 |
4 |
|
|
4 |
| Tropical Storm Lee |
9/2 - 9/5 |
60 |
986 |
TS |
Below TS |
|
21 |
| Hurricane Maria |
9/6 - 9/16 |
80 |
979 |
1 |
|
Newfoundland |
0 |
| Tropical Storm Nate |
9/7 - 9/12 |
70 |
994 |
TS |
|
Near Veracruz, Mexico |
5 |
| Hurricane Ophelia |
9/21 - 10/03 |
140 |
940 |
4 |
|
Newfoundland |
0 |
| Hurricane Philippe |
9/24 - 10/09 |
90 |
976 |
1 |
|
|
0 |
| Hurricane Rina |
10/23 - 10/28 |
110 |
966 |
2 |
|
Bypassed Cancun, Mexico |
0 |
Recent Industry Losses
The industry has recently had another large loss in Asia, caused by flooding in Thailand, over the last three months. Much of the city of Bangkok (population of 9,000,000) is threatened and over 300 have died. A large part of the claims will be from foreign insureds, including Cargo and Contingent Business Interruption covers. Many Japanese, U.S. and European companies have factories and warehouses in the region, and worldwide property programs that include the Flood peril for these coverages. Market reports are that over 20,000 commercial structures have damage. Over $3 billion in claims have already been advised, the majority of which is reinsured.
Several other recent events deserve mention, although largely not affecting reinsurers:
-
On October 23rd, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in eastern Turkey killed over 500 and damaged tens of thousands of buildings. We estimate the insured loss to be several hundred million dollars.
-
On October 27th, Tropical Storm Rina passed near Mexico's Yucatan resort area, which is one of the highest value concentrations in the Caribbean. A moderate insured loss is likely.
-
The October 29th snowstorm in the Northeast left over three million homes without power, mostly due to fallen trees and limbs. We estimate the loss at over one billion dollars.
Our scheduled Updates will return next May, with a report on 2012 season forecasts and our outlook for weather conditions. We always welcome your comments and suggestions.
Best Regards,
Paul Kneuer / Kathy Sandberg / Gloria LaGrua / Jon Christianson / Heather Talarico / Duane Hynes
