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General Observations
 The peak level of exposures is near Central
Oklahoma or the Texas panhandle, where
Mountain and Gulf air frequently mix.
Storms tend to travel North and West, and activity
is gradually reduced moving in those directions.
Topography matters, but the effect is complicated.
Resolution of Physical Scales
| Hurricanes |
Eyes measured in miles
Radius to max winds 50+ miles. |
| Earthquake |
Segment ruptures of 100ish miles
Lateral damage across consistent soil types: miles |
| Hail |
Damage varies significantly across a few hundreds yards |
| Tornado |
Funnels a few feet in width |
Resolution of Tornado Exposure
Resolution of Hailstorm Exposure
Tornado and Hailstorm Losses
Earthquakes and hurricanes are much larger than individual
properties or zip codes, so simulated losses don't change
significantly if there are small differences in the simulated quake
location or storm track.
This is not true for tornadoes. Most insurers have had losses that
devastated one side of a road and completely miss other locations
only a few yards away. Thus, estimated tornado losses have a
wide degree of randomness. Secondary uncertainty calculations
are an extremely important consideration in modeling tornado and
hail losses.
Cat 38 “Simulation”
Damageability Ratio Grid
Data Resolution is the Limit on our Ability
to Describe Reality
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