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How DFA Can Help the Property/Casualty Industry, Part 4
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma...
Catastrophes: Models and Reserving
Risk Measures
Reinsurer Results:
Catastrophe and Strengthening
Hurricanes: 2003 and 2004 Results, Clustering and TransitioninG
Brushfire and Fire Following Exposures
Tsunami Exposure Worldwide and U.S.
Wind and Hail: Relative Hazard Levels
Tornado and Hailstorm
Hurricane
Cat Modeling Class
Introduction to Reinsurance
Holborn Technical Seminar
Catastrophe, Injury, and Insurance
Review of Myers & Read ARIA Paper
A Perfectly Ordinary Tuesday Morning
This is Not Your Father’s Cat Model
Global Warming and Increased Catastrophes?
Reinsurer Risk Loads from Marginal Surplus Requirements, PCAS LXXVII
Reinsurance Markets
Risk Transfer Assessment
Introduction to Asset Returns and Risks
CAS Call Paper Panel
Ceded Reinsurance Issues in DFA
Catastrophe Reinsurance Simulation Game
Reinsurance by any other name
Clash Pricing
ALLOCATION OF SURPLUS FOR A MULTI-LINE INSURER
Optimization to Improve Business Performance

 

 
May 12-13, 2005
Paul Kneuer
2005 Client Technical Seminar
Page: 1 2 3 4 5

Tornado

Tornado strength is measured by the Fujita scale which is described below. At the higher levels, weather instruments are destroyed, so wind speeds are only indirectly estimated.

Scale
Wind Speed
(mph)
Description
Typical Damage
F0
Under 73
Light damage
Branches broken off trees; signs damaged
F1
73 – 112
Moderate damage
Peels surface off roofs; mobilehomes pushed off foundations
F2
113 – 157
Considerable damage
Roofs torn off frame houses; mobilehomes demolished; large trees uprooted
F3
158 – 206
Severe damage
Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; most trees uprooted; cars lifted off the ground
F4
207 – 260
Devastating damage
Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown some distance; cars thrown
F5
261 – 318
Incredible damage
Strong frame houses swept away; trees debarked

Missouri Tornado Facts...

Missouri averages 26 tornadoes per year, and has recorded 1,646 tornadoes from 1950 – 2003.

Peak tornado season for Missouri runs from mid March through late June, with the months of April and May producing the most tornadoes.

Tornadoes are most likely to occur between 3PM and 9PM.

Roughly 67% of Missouri tornadoes are weak with wind speeds of 50 to 110 mph. About 30% are rated as strong with wind speeds of 110 to 205 mph. Luckily, only 3% are violent with wind speeds over 205 mph.

Between 1950 and 2003, there have been a total of 1,646 tornadoes, 542 of them significant, with an intensity of F2 or greater.

When compared to other States, Missouri ranks:

  • 7th for frequency of Tornadoes,

  • 12th for number of deaths,

  • 15th for injuries and

  • 9th for cost of damages

Source: www.disastercenter.com; Missouri Hazard Analysis; NCDC Storm Database.

On May 4, 2003 many tornadoes erupted from the southwest of Missouri. This was a very rare event for this part of Missouri since many of the tornadoes experienced across this area are short lived small tornadoes and will probably exceed any tornado events that occurred over the past 100 years for this part of Missouri. The Missouri Department of Insurance estimated insurers had paid $500Mn in insured property losses by the end of May, 2003.

Sources: Missouri Hazard Analysis; http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2003/06/16/daily45.html; www.noa.gov

Minnesota Tornado Facts...

The deadliest Minnesota tornado of record was the Saint Cloud-Sauk Rapids tornado on April 14, 1886, which killed 74 people.

The most damaging tornadoes were those occurring in the northern part of Minneapolis in the late afternoon of May 6, 1965, causing about $285,000,000 (in 2002 dollars) damage.

Most of Minnesota’s deadly and damaging tornadoes occurred in groups of outbreaks that often last from 6 to 12 hours. The worst such outbreak in Minnesota occurred on June 28, 1979, when 16 tornadoes touched down across the State, from northwest to southeast in a 6 ˝ hour period.

When compared to other States, Minnesota ranks:

  • 17th for frequency of Tornadoes,

  • 29th for annual tornadoes per 10,000 square miles

  • 18th for number of deaths,

  • 19th for injuries and

  • 6th for cost of damages

Sources: www.disastercenter.com/minn/tornado.html; http://climate.umn.edu/doc/historical/tornadic.htm;
http://climate.umn.edu/text/historical/mn_climate_summary.txt

Minnesota Historic Tornado Events
Recorded Tornado Events from 1950-2002

 

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