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How DFA Can Help the Property/Casualty Industry, Part 4
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma...
Catastrophes: Models and Reserving
Risk Measures
Reinsurer Results:
Catastrophe and Strengthening
Hurricanes: 2003 and 2004 Results, Clustering and TransitioninG
Brushfire and Fire Following Exposures
Tsunami Exposure Worldwide and U.S.
Wind and Hail: Relative Hazard Levels
Cat Modeling Class
Introduction to Reinsurance
Holborn Technical Seminar
Catastrophe, Injury, and Insurance
Review of Myers & Read ARIA Paper
A Perfectly Ordinary Tuesday Morning
This is Not Your Father’s Cat Model
Global Warming and Increased Catastrophes?
Reinsurer Risk Loads from Marginal Surplus Requirements, PCAS LXXVII
Reinsurance Markets
Risk Transfer Assessment
Introduction to Asset Returns and Risks
CAS Call Paper Panel
Ceded Reinsurance Issues in DFA
Catastrophe Reinsurance Simulation Game
Reinsurance by any other name
Clash Pricing
ALLOCATION OF SURPLUS FOR A MULTI-LINE INSURER
Optimization to Improve Business Performance

 

 
May 12-13, 2005
Thomas Larsen
2005 Client Technical Seminar
Page: 1 2

Some Historic Tsunamis

2004 Sumatra - M 9.0 earthquake, 280,000 fatalities

1998 Papua New Guinea - M 7.0 earthquake killing more than 2000

1993 Japan - M 7.8 earthquake, $600 million damage

1960 Chilean earthquake - tsunami killing people in Japan

1946 Puerto Rico – 1800 drowned?

1918 Puerto Rico – 91 dead

1883 Krakatoa eruption - tsunami killing more than 36,000

1867 Virgin Islands - tsunami with more than 10 meter run-up in Guadeloupe

1812 California - maximum run-up 3.4 meters

1755 Lisbon - 60,000 fatalities alone in Lisbon (M 9.0 earthquake hundreds of kilometers onshore)

1700 Cascadia Fault - earthquake along the North American coast caused 5 meter Tsunami in Japan

What gets damaged / lost

Casualties

Property near shore

  • Resorts

  • Oil & Petroleum transfer facilities

  • Port Facilities (onshore, offshore)

Environmental damage

  • Spills, etc

Tsunami Run-Up December 26, 2004

Damage Area Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Tsunami, Indonesia
December 26, 2004

Japan 1993

Bronze Age Tsunami ~1650 BC

Santorini caldera collapsed, causing ~ 40 m high tsunami on north shore of Crete

Possible cause of demise of Minoan culture on Crete

Possible source of Atlantis myth

What has changed since 2001

Risk hasn’t changed

Focus on large global catastrophes is increased

Regulators are more accepting of ‘modeling’ to estimate the effects of extreme events

  • NCCI rate filing for Alaska includes tsunami load

Realization that for most events this is an insurable peril

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