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A Look Ahead
Summary - Benefits of 3rd Generation Modeling
Platform
 Basin-wide stochastic track set proved to be robust for event selection:
- More realistic time histories and the ability to model “clash” between U.S. and
Caribbean and across the U.S.
- Typology that has allowed us to quickly internalize and analyze the clustering
phenomena observed in 2004
Time-stepping, directional windfield modeling that allows us to better capture the
variability in peak gust
Storm surge hazard model differentiated wave action and amplification in bays
Regionalized and component based vulnerability captured code and inventory
differences:
- Look more carefully at the performance of roofs, windows, and other
architectural features
- Provide the basis for implementing lessons from our claims analyses
strategically
VRG-based hazard modeling that is fundamental to our ability to model and analyze
individual claims
- Combined with the post-event peak gust footprint capabilities, we were able to
track very early on model versus incurred loss comparisons for over 360
portfolio-events.
Next Steps – an ongoing process
Late 2004 - Launched our claims data initiative
RiskLink 5.0, 2005:
- Manufactured home vulnerability upgrade
- Enhanced CAT Response functionality
- US Hurricane states and Offshore Platform IED update
- Area accumulation functionality for Gulf of Mexico
September 2005 Report on findings on claims data initiative and planned model
enhancements
Spring ‘06 - Incremental upgrades
- U.S. Hurricane Model emphasis on commercial vulnerability and demand
surge
- Offshore Pipeline damage and the associated impacts on LOP
- Storm surge risk in Caribbean model and vulnerability
upgrades
Ongoing research, improved simulation modeling, and future model
enhancements
2005 Hurricane Forecasts
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| Forecast |
Date |
Named
Storms |
Hurricanes |
Intense
Hurricanes |
|
| Bill Gray |
1 April 2005 |
13 |
7 |
3 |
| Tropicalstormrisk.com |
5 May 2005 |
13.9 |
7.8 |
3.6 |
| NOAA |
May |
|
|
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Probability of Category 3-5 storm landfall
- Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas: 41%
- East Coast including the Florida Peninsula: 53%
- Entire U.S. Coast: 73%
Similar forecast to the previous 2 years, though number of
landfalls has been very different
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