|
Key Features of the 2003 U.S. Hurricane Model
 Basin-wide stochastic
tracks with realistic
lifetime histories
Models clash and risk
from by-passing
storms
Incorporates extra-
tropical transition
Time-stepping
windfield calculations
Directional factors for
surface roughness
High-resolution
topography/land
cover calculations
and VRG hazard
storage
Component-based
vulnerability, calibrated
using claims and
engineering studies
Regional code and
construction variations
Detailed building inventory
Secondary modifiers,
including age and and
mitigation measures
More Realistic Set of Stochastic Tracks
Explicit Modeling of Transitioning Storms
Transitioning storms form when
tropical systems interact with the
jet stream in mid-latitudes
Windfield of a transitioning storm
is broader than its hurricane
counterpart
The strongest winds transfer to
the right-hand side of the storm
over a broader area
The winds on the left-hand side
are much weaker
THE RISK TRANSFERS TO THE
RIGHT
 |
| Wind Swath |
Historical Transitioning Storms
New, High-Resolution Time-Stepping Methodology
for Modeling Wind-Land Interaction
Regional Differences in Vulnerability
New model differentiates vulnerability
based on regional building practices
and state building codes and
enforcement
Ultra-High Resolution Implementation of
New Storm Surge Model
New Orleans: maximum inundation
for Cat 4 hurricane
Miami:
VRG reconstruction of
Hurricane Andrew surge
2003 Tropical Storms: North Atlantic & East Pacific
|
