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How DFA Can Help the Property/Casualty Industry, Part 4
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma...
Catastrophes: Models and Reserving
Risk Measures
Reinsurer Results:
Catastrophe and Strengthening
Hurricanes: 2003 and 2004 Results, Clustering and TransitioninG
Brushfire and Fire Following Exposures
Tsunami Exposure Worldwide and U.S.
Wind and Hail: Relative Hazard Levels
Cat Modeling Class
Introduction to Reinsurance
Holborn Technical Seminar
Catastrophe, Injury, and Insurance
Chapter 1: Summary
Chapter 2: Background
Chapter 3: Study Methology
Chapter 4: Population at Risk
Chapter 5: Earthquake
Chapter 6: Terrorism
Chapter 7: Industrial Accident
Chapter 8: Infectious Disease
Chapter 9: Impact of Data Quality
Chapter 10: Managing the Risk
Chapter 11: The Future
Review of Myers & Read ARIA Paper
A Perfectly Ordinary Tuesday Morning
This is Not Your Father’s Cat Model
Global Warming and Increased Catastrophes?
Reinsurer Risk Loads from Marginal Surplus Requirements, PCAS LXXVII
Reinsurance Markets
Risk Transfer Assessment
Introduction to Asset Returns and Risks
CAS Call Paper Panel
Ceded Reinsurance Issues in DFA
Catastrophe Reinsurance Simulation Game
Reinsurance by any other name
Clash Pricing
ALLOCATION OF SURPLUS FOR A MULTI-LINE INSURER
Optimization to Improve Business Performance

 

 
2004
Andrew Coburn and Alexandra Cohen
Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
 
Page: 1 2 3

9. Impact of Data Quality

Insurance executives use the output of catastrophe models to support decisions that can have major financial implications for their business. Like all modeling, the quality of the output is only as good as the quality of the input data.The key input into catastrophe models is data about the exposure in an insurer’s portfolio.The importance of the quality of this data cannot be underestimated, as the completeness, accuracy, and resolution of portfolio information has a direct impact on the magnitude of losses output by the model. While models have the ability to infer information to help compensate for missing data, these assumptions may not always provide the most accurate assessment of a company’s risk.

Better quality data does not necessarily lead to lower modeled losses. However, it will result in more accurate model results for better decision making. This chapter identifies not only the key portfolio information needed, but also the benefits of capturing the appropriate data.

9.1 Catastrophic Events

It often takes a critical catastrophic event to prompt changes in practices for the insurance industry. For property insurers, the key events were Hurricane Andrew in 1992 ($16.5 billion in insured loss (1)) and the Northridge Earthquake in 1994 ($12.5 billion in insured loss (2)).These and other large losses of the early 1990s forced many unprepared insurance companies and reinsurers out of business. Available capital reserves for large catastrophe losses were depleted and there were many changes in the industry, including a major consolidation, the arrival of new capital and the single line catastrophe reinsurer, exploration of alternative risk transfer mechanisms, and increasing emphasis on regulation, security, and rating.

9.1.1 The Need for Data

For property insurers, the ability to assess risk after these key benchmark events required significant reengineering of their data capture processes. Aggregated data by state or county was no longer adequate and more precise location information with construction and occupancy detail was required to analyze a company’s exposures accurately. For some companies, the process of improving the quality of the data involved changing back-office systems and front-office data collection, and it took several years to accomplish.Today, it is standard practice for property insurers to capture all important location information at a high level of resolution, and to manage and demonstrate capital adequacy through analytical models.

9.1.2 The World Trade Center Event

In 2001, the WTC attack resulted in more than $40 billion (3) of insured loss, and has caused many companies to reevaluate their practices of managing multi-line exposure, including workers compensation and other areas of potential human loss. Losses in many individual lines, particularly workers compensation, proved unprecedented. The potential impact of mass casualty events has registered with management, and many companies are looking for ways of assessing their risk from catastrophe loss to insurance lines such as life and health.

Workers compensation writers have embarked upon a similar process to improve the quality of the data they collect following the WTC event. Prior to September 11, the industry standard for data capture to fulfill regulatory reporting requirements was state aggregates by rating class. However, as many of the workers compensation insurers recognized the value of monitoring and managing catastrophe risk through the property side of their business, the process of improving data quality has been rapid, driven by senior management and reinsurers that have made data collection an important priority.

9.1.3 Assessing Life and Health Catastrophe Risk

If life and health insurance companies want to understand and manage their catastrophe risk, they will need to address the types of information they collect, and the resolution of that data.

The assessment of catastrophe risk requires understanding three main areas:

How much is insured? It is important for a company to understand how much exposure (either number of people or limits) they have at risk. Understanding the level of exposure is the prerequisite for modeling. Exposure analysis should consider who is insured (how many, their occupations) and the coverage provided (limits, deductibles, and other financial information).

Where are the insured people located? The magnitude of catastrophe risk varies dramatically with geographic location. For a peril capable of destroying a building and its occupants, knowing which buildings you have insured personnel inside is important. Capturing an accurate street address for the company or individual will help identify where that exposure is located. As this report has illustrated, businesses that insure people face the additional problem that their insureds move, and they may need to capture both a work and home address to better understand their exposure.

In what type of structure are the insureds located? The strength and resilience of the buildings that insureds occupy affects their risk. The characteristics of a structure affects its chances of collapsing in an earthquake or having its occupants injured in other types of events. Building type information such as construction material and height is useful to develop an accurate risk assessment.

While models are capable of capturing additional data fields, the information previously listed is the most important, and the potential impact of each is discussed below.

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(1) In 1992 dollars, $19.6 billion in 2001 inflation adjusted dollars.

(2) In 1994 dollars, $14.9 billion in 2001 inflation adjusted dollars.

(3) Insurance Information Institute estimate (September 6, 2002).

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