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How DFA Can Help the Property/Casualty Industry, Part 4
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma...
Catastrophes: Models and Reserving
Risk Measures
Reinsurer Results:
Catastrophe and Strengthening
Hurricanes: 2003 and 2004 Results, Clustering and TransitioninG
Brushfire and Fire Following Exposures
Tsunami Exposure Worldwide and U.S.
Wind and Hail: Relative Hazard Levels
Cat Modeling Class
Introduction to Reinsurance
Holborn Technical Seminar
Catastrophe, Injury, and Insurance
Review of Myers & Read ARIA Paper
A Perfectly Ordinary Tuesday Morning
This is Not Your Father’s Cat Model
Global Warming and Increased Catastrophes?
Reinsurer Risk Loads from Marginal Surplus Requirements, PCAS LXXVII
Reinsurance Markets
Risk Transfer Assessment
Introduction to Asset Returns and Risks
CAS Call Paper Panel
Ceded Reinsurance Issues in DFA
Catastrophe Reinsurance Simulation Game
Reinsurance by any other name
Clash Pricing
ALLOCATION OF SURPLUS FOR A MULTI-LINE INSURER
Optimization to Improve Business Performance

 

 
November 29, 2001
Paul Kneuer
Southwest Actuarial Forum
 
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Insured Liability Losses

Federal non-contributory plan offered to survivors on a voluntary basis. Compensation based on need, not loss, and with offsets for WC and Life insurance and assets.

Families of most highly paid people will not benefit from this and will opt out to sue various parties.

Recoveries will certainly exhaust all related limits. Federal compensation plan limits liability of most (perhaps all) parties to their insurance limits, so the hunt for available limits is already on.

Aviation Liability:  
Per occurrence, one plane each in NY $3.5Bn
Less than full limits at Pennsylvania, Pentagon sites $1.0Bn
Directly related parties (security guards, etc.) $1.0Bn
  $5.5Bn

General Liability/Umbrella:  
Silverstein, PA of NY & NJ, architects, engineers, tenants, employers (via EL) $5.0Bn??

Total Insured Liability: $10Bn+ = $3Mn per life x 3,000+ lives?

Insured WC Losses

3,000 - 4,000 Compensable fatalities $1.5Bn
1,000 Traumatic Cases $0.5Bn
??? Latent Injuries ???
Continuing asbestos exposure in 7,000,000 people $0 (per EPA)
Total Insured WC Losses $3.0Bn

Other Insured P&C Losses

AD&D ?
Specie, Fidelity, Crime ?
Valuable Papers, Accounts Receivables ?
Event Cancellation ?
Fine Arts ?
Total Other Insured P&C Losses $2.0Bn

Total Direct Insured P&C Loss

Direct Property $15.0Bn
Indirect Property $10.5Bn
Aviation Liability $5.5Bn
GL/Umbrella $5.0Bn
Workers' Compensation $3.0Bn
Other $2.0Bn
Total P&C Loss $41.0Bn

Remember, this assumes:

Loss Limit policies pay for only one occurrence in NYC

Little off-premises BI coverage was sold

Financial firms with direct loss cannot also claim BI for trading interruption at other locations

No latent Workers' Compensation asbestos claims

No surprises

Who Has the Direct Loss?

Twelve large US Commercial lines companies prominent in large accounts, financial services and layered property have 80%+ of the on-the-ground policies

On layered-property policies, Swiss Re, Gen Re, Lloyd's, surplus lines insurers, and other reinsurers are also included as direct insurers and facultative reinsurers

On Aviation policies, most or all the above

About fifty smaller and regional US insurers have losses for smaller WTC tenants, neighboring firms and Umbrella lines on some large programs

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