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How DFA Can Help the Property/Casualty Industry, Part 4
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma...
Catastrophes: Models and Reserving
Risk Measures
Reinsurer Results:
Catastrophe and Strengthening
Hurricanes: 2003 and 2004 Results, Clustering and TransitioninG
Brushfire and Fire Following Exposures
Tsunami Exposure Worldwide and U.S.
Wind and Hail: Relative Hazard Levels
Cat Modeling Class
Introduction to Reinsurance
Holborn Technical Seminar
Catastrophe, Injury, and Insurance
Review of Myers & Read ARIA Paper
A Perfectly Ordinary Tuesday Morning
This is Not Your Father’s Cat Model
Global Warming and Increased Catastrophes?
Reinsurer Risk Loads from Marginal Surplus Requirements, PCAS LXXVII
Reinsurance Markets
Risk Transfer Assessment
"Sleep-at-Night" Covers
Suggestions for Practical Standards
CAS Activities
Introduction to Asset Returns and Risks
CAS Call Paper Panel
Ceded Reinsurance Issues in DFA
Catastrophe Reinsurance Simulation Game
Reinsurance by any other name
Clash Pricing
ALLOCATION OF SURPLUS FOR A MULTI-LINE INSURER
Optimization to Improve Business Performance

 

 
1998
Paul J. Kneuer

 
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Company's Catastrophe Reinsurance Program

What Happens When There are Losses?

Loss of Profit Commission in Year #1

"Acceleration Premiums" in Years #1-#5

Additional Premiums in Years #2-#6

Early Introduction of Industry Los Warranties in Years #2 or #3

Increase in Industry Loss Warranties After Third Loss or in Year #5

Penalty Premium to cancel in deficit

Analysis of All Six Years

It is theoretically posible for the reinsurers to have a loss if the contract runs all six years. Yes, but, is it likely?

With three full-layer hits, the reinsurers' loss ratio would be 92%. At least four losses required before any risk to reinsurers

But to sustain four losses, the third and forth losses must have met a very significant industry loss warranty. The fourth loss was probably a third event during year #5 or #6, Even then, loss ratio is below 112.5%

Few auditors would find this scenario to be a "reasonable possibility" during a six-year period.

If there is risk transfer, it is only in some shorter portion of the contract.

When Would Company Cancel?

Assumption 1: Beginning Year #2, No Loss in Year #1

Assumption 2: Beginning Year #2, Loss in Year #1

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